The Arab world is experiencing drastic changes and a paramount transformation is in the security scenario. The world is becoming multi-polar and economically China and India are becoming strong. So far the US was the main guarantor of security in the Arab Gulf region. However, America is now reluctant to provide security. Hence, there should be some power to fill the void. In view of the peaceful past of India, the Gulf countries aspire that India should be ready to play a vigorous role in the region.
The Middle East is a very complex area. There are quite a few issues; the prominent issues are: the Shia-Sunni conflict, the emergence of an Islamic State, rising extremism/terrorism in the area, disagreements between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran, ideological differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the continuous hostility between Israel and Palestine. Arab countries are also worried about India’s growing relationship with Israel. Hence India has to be careful so that excellent relations with one should not become the reason for unpleasantness with others.
The rulers as well as the masses of the Arab world feel that Western countries have a poor opinion about the Muslim world since they view Muslims with suspicion. On the other hand, India, which has the second largest Muslim population in the planet, is viewed as a peaceful country as it was never an aggressor.
India has close relations with the Arab world since ancient times; the contact was at all fields, including cultural, social, historical and trade. The cordial relations were at the Government and people-to-people levels. India has been an ardent supporter of the Palestinian cause since the beginning.
More than 6.5 million Indians are working in Arab countries and they remitted US$70 billion in 2012 alone. Indian trade with the region was more than $205 billion in 2012-13. Not only this, the region meets the major portion of India’s energy requirements.
Besides this, in view of the close proximity, India is deeply concerned about developments in the region. In the last leg of 2010, the protests which started from Tunisia soon spread in the region and residents of several countries, especially Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, and Bahrain, staged demonstrations for more democratic rights and economic betterment.
India is also concerned about the rise of an Islamic State (IS) in the region. The IS is a Salafi terrorist organisation which controls large portions of Iraq and Syria and also controls some areas of Libya and Nigeria. The IS has increased extremism and terrorism in the area and terrorists from all over the world are joining this wealthy terrorist outfit.
NEED FOR A DETAILED POLICY
It was high time India chalked out a detailed policy towards the Arab world. The dignitaries of both the countries must exchange visits and chalk out a result-oriented, pragmatic policy. India can also appoint a senior Foreign Service Officer as a special envoy for the region who can formulate a mutually beneficial policy.
India has outstanding relations with several countries of the region, including Palestine. Nonetheless after the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992, the close defence ties between India and Israel bothered several countries of the Arab world. Israel has emerged as a major supplier of defence and agricultural equipment to India. Therefore India should reinforce bilateral ties in such a way that the Arab countries feel that India-Israel relationship is not against them and India is more close and friendly to them.
Bilateral relationship is important but India should also develop multilateral relationship through various pacts, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which is a political and economic alliance of six Middle East countries, The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has a membership of 57 Muslim countries which protects the interests of the Muslim world and the Arab League which has a membership of 22 Arab countries.
The Gulf countries have abundance of cash and India being a developing economy needs investments. Hence India should launch an aggressive campaign to procure investments from the Gulf. India should identify the areas and if need be rules should also be made investor-friendly. Besides this, India should include more items as well as more countries for exports.
At present India purchases bulk of its energy from the region. However, now India should start joint ventures in the energy field with the local companies of Middle East countries. India has technical manpower and it can start joint ventures in natural gas, desalination plants, fertilizer and refineries. India can also discuss the exchange programme like food for oil as it will enhance interdependence to each other.
CULTURAL CENTRES
India should open cultural centres in the area; our foreign missions should spread the foreign policy of the country more aggressively. India should establish more educational institutions in the Arab world and there should be more exchange of scholars and foreign policy planners between India and the countries of the region.
More than six million Indians reside in this volatile area. Hence India needs to devise a comprehensive plan to evacuate its citizens in the hour of need. Recently Indians from Egypt and Libya had to be withdrawn.
The Arab countries have to be dealt with independently as there are fundamental differences, diverse priorities and objectives between them. These countries will also not like to be treated under the “Islamic agenda”. Hence India has to deal with every country as an independent entity.
India must play an active role and there should be a multilateral system which guarantees stability, peace and prosperity in the region which is full of contradictions and problems. The planners in India must remember that there cannot be a vacuum and if India does not act, some other powers, including China, may initiate action.
(The writer is a former Director of the Cabinet Secretariat. This column is courtesy South Asia Monitor.)
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